A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
